* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 42 49 55 57 61 61 62 61 59 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 42 49 55 57 61 61 62 61 59 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 41 44 46 46 46 44 42 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 8 4 5 3 3 4 4 9 9 19 23 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 2 3 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 86 83 74 72 64 64 131 181 137 226 184 215 242 233 258 256 292 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 129 129 130 133 136 135 134 132 132 130 128 125 121 120 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 117 117 120 124 125 125 125 123 124 121 118 114 110 107 103 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 48 52 49 57 53 57 54 52 48 51 52 57 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 0 10 19 19 35 26 20 11 1 -6 -15 -42 -60 -85 -96 200 MB DIV -4 -27 -40 -52 -35 -61 -48 -40 -8 -3 8 18 22 24 1 -52 -35 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 6 12 6 3 LAND (KM) 1891 1948 1958 1958 1949 1889 1831 1827 1892 1904 1954 2042 2148 2209 2200 2140 2035 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.1 13.5 12.9 12.8 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.6 35.5 35.3 35.1 35.0 35.2 35.7 36.5 37.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 1 1 3 3 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 18 19 21 23 23 22 17 16 16 17 15 7 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 17. 24. 30. 32. 36. 36. 37. 36. 34. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 35.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 8.7% 7.9% 4.7% 1.7% 4.4% 2.8% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/25/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 34 42 49 55 57 61 61 62 61 59 59 60 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 41 48 54 56 60 60 61 60 58 58 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 37 44 50 52 56 56 57 56 54 54 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 37 43 45 49 49 50 49 47 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT