* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 47 52 57 58 61 63 63 62 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 47 52 57 58 61 63 63 62 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 34 39 43 47 50 50 47 43 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 9 5 3 4 1 2 6 11 20 27 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 1 2 3 1 0 2 2 3 4 0 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 87 81 74 72 72 64 93 112 111 5 249 225 229 243 234 252 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 130 132 134 136 135 137 136 135 133 129 126 122 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 123 118 121 124 128 123 128 129 127 125 121 117 112 109 108 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 53 52 52 53 51 55 55 58 58 58 54 54 55 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 9 8 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 0 -1 10 16 27 28 25 25 15 11 10 -21 -47 -86 -105 200 MB DIV 11 6 -28 -42 -41 -31 -38 -42 -12 -16 10 31 52 31 -8 -44 -1 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 10 11 11 8 LAND (KM) 1811 1854 1884 1903 1892 1849 1776 1733 1762 1846 1972 2032 2088 2175 2254 2242 2161 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.6 12.2 12.5 13.3 14.5 15.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.1 36.1 36.2 36.3 36.5 37.0 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 1 1 2 4 0 3 6 6 8 8 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 20 21 16 16 9 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 22. 27. 32. 33. 36. 38. 38. 37. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 36.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.5% 7.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 6.7% 4.9% 2.6% 1.2% 3.8% 2.9% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.7% 4.5% 3.2% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/25/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/25/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 33 39 47 52 57 58 61 63 63 62 59 59 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 32 38 46 51 56 57 60 62 62 61 58 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 35 43 48 53 54 57 59 59 58 55 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 36 41 46 47 50 52 52 51 48 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT