* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 41 48 58 60 66 70 77 82 85 86 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 41 48 58 60 66 70 77 82 85 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 33 37 43 49 55 60 65 69 69 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 17 17 14 12 8 6 6 3 1 2 3 11 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 1 1 3 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 2 3 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 93 84 80 80 70 53 55 15 360 354 308 226 162 216 219 231 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 138 137 136 138 139 139 139 139 142 143 138 134 128 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 130 129 128 125 128 130 130 129 132 136 137 131 125 117 112 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 53 54 54 53 53 55 60 61 62 61 61 57 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 5 3 -6 -8 -1 10 19 28 23 21 11 10 15 14 4 -13 200 MB DIV 9 -7 -5 -11 -27 -36 -36 -17 -39 -8 9 17 27 63 59 30 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 1700 1706 1721 1739 1768 1788 1743 1690 1637 1637 1679 1751 1762 1796 1856 1904 1925 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 12.6 12.1 11.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 36.7 37.0 37.2 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 38.0 38.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 2 1 4 6 8 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 13 22 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -4. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 16. 23. 33. 35. 41. 45. 52. 57. 60. 61. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 36.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.4% 6.7% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 4.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.7% 3.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.7% 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 4.7% 2.5% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/24/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 35 41 48 58 60 66 70 77 82 85 86 84 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 38 45 55 57 63 67 74 79 82 83 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 33 40 50 52 58 62 69 74 77 78 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 32 42 44 50 54 61 66 69 70 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT