* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 29 37 45 54 59 66 72 79 87 88 89 87 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 29 37 45 54 59 66 72 79 87 88 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 30 35 40 46 53 61 66 66 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 14 15 12 10 10 5 4 4 4 2 3 4 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 1 4 3 -2 -2 0 0 -4 -4 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 83 98 84 77 79 57 39 26 338 4 48 103 206 197 228 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 138 137 136 137 139 142 144 144 143 142 140 136 131 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 130 130 128 125 127 130 134 133 134 135 136 133 127 122 118 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 49 49 50 53 50 54 54 58 60 63 63 62 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 17 12 2 -3 14 13 32 30 25 17 7 3 -2 -2 -5 200 MB DIV 9 24 10 -1 -13 -30 -31 -14 -13 -4 10 9 19 44 28 12 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 1722 1745 1761 1776 1779 1776 1752 1693 1614 1562 1553 1566 1595 1634 1689 1709 1739 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.7 13.6 13.1 12.3 11.9 11.9 12.5 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 36.9 37.2 37.6 37.9 38.3 38.5 38.8 39.1 39.4 39.5 39.8 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 1 2 3 4 1 1 4 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 17 17 17 16 15 16 17 17 15 13 13 18 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 25. 34. 39. 46. 52. 59. 67. 68. 69. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 36.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.1% 6.5% 3.7% 1.1% 2.9% 3.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 29 37 45 54 59 66 72 79 87 88 89 87 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 27 35 43 52 57 64 70 77 85 86 87 85 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 31 39 48 53 60 66 73 81 82 83 81 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT