* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 46 52 59 65 74 77 82 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 46 52 59 65 74 77 82 81 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 29 33 39 47 55 60 60 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 16 12 13 12 11 9 4 1 2 2 9 9 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 2 4 4 1 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -3 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 86 83 89 104 91 71 58 46 53 55 30 6 211 229 246 230 235 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 138 138 136 133 136 137 137 137 138 135 131 131 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 130 129 126 120 125 126 125 127 129 127 122 120 118 112 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 49 49 49 50 53 54 56 59 59 62 60 62 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 24 17 14 5 10 25 27 34 30 30 23 21 19 10 8 200 MB DIV 13 17 24 20 27 -13 -11 -28 -40 -43 13 35 44 15 26 17 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1706 1728 1741 1757 1784 1781 1792 1778 1752 1733 1737 1758 1773 1820 1847 1870 1888 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.9 13.1 13.8 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.7 37.1 37.4 37.7 38.1 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.3 38.6 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 0 1 2 0 2 4 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 18 17 17 18 17 16 16 16 16 13 11 19 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 38. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 26. 32. 39. 45. 54. 57. 62. 61. 62. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 36.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.4% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 46 52 59 65 74 77 82 81 82 82 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 44 50 57 63 72 75 80 79 80 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 31 40 46 53 59 68 71 76 75 76 76 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT