* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 49 56 62 67 73 77 80 80 80 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 49 56 62 67 73 77 80 80 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 31 36 42 48 53 54 52 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 20 16 16 11 11 11 3 3 4 6 8 13 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 1 1 3 3 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 75 81 90 105 76 63 50 47 50 257 274 229 236 248 261 260 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 141 139 138 135 135 137 136 137 137 138 129 128 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 133 133 130 129 125 123 126 125 127 128 131 122 118 112 111 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 50 50 49 54 53 57 56 61 61 60 59 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 26 19 14 5 -3 14 16 24 17 15 6 14 22 -3 -13 200 MB DIV 25 13 7 19 24 5 -5 -33 -38 -17 12 47 41 31 14 4 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 3 6 2 5 LAND (KM) 1671 1679 1691 1706 1722 1751 1781 1787 1776 1769 1774 1822 1886 1957 2034 2107 2167 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.5 13.6 13.3 12.9 12.9 13.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.5 36.9 37.2 37.5 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.0 37.8 37.7 37.7 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 4 2 1 2 1 2 5 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 24 15 15 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 21. 29. 36. 42. 47. 53. 57. 60. 60. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 36.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.7% 5.9% 3.0% 0.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 28 35 41 49 56 62 67 73 77 80 80 80 78 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 38 46 53 59 64 70 74 77 77 77 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 33 41 48 54 59 65 69 72 72 72 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT