* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 40 47 55 60 65 69 75 77 79 79 76 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 40 47 55 60 65 69 75 77 79 79 76 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 27 30 34 39 42 44 45 46 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 18 17 15 15 12 11 2 5 4 5 5 10 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 0 1 3 6 0 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 92 97 90 83 84 72 65 49 31 38 243 268 242 239 226 243 238 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 142 143 140 137 135 135 136 134 135 138 133 129 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 136 135 136 133 128 123 124 125 122 125 129 125 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 52 52 52 50 51 54 55 54 56 56 56 55 57 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 7 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 30 22 18 6 -3 6 20 20 20 10 4 9 17 18 4 200 MB DIV 5 20 16 22 28 17 -9 -31 -62 -26 -12 13 35 27 10 32 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 1644 1650 1638 1639 1654 1719 1783 1816 1818 1818 1810 1840 1867 1888 1932 1960 1968 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.7 12.4 13.4 13.9 13.8 13.4 13.2 13.6 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.7 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.6 37.5 37.5 37.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 1 2 2 0 4 6 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 20 20 20 18 17 19 19 18 18 18 23 16 14 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 27. 35. 40. 45. 49. 55. 57. 59. 59. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 35.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 8.9% 6.7% 2.8% 1.2% 3.8% 3.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 32 40 47 55 60 65 69 75 77 79 79 76 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 30 38 45 53 58 63 67 73 75 77 77 74 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 33 40 48 53 58 62 68 70 72 72 69 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT