* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 37 44 51 57 62 67 70 72 71 70 69 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 30 37 44 51 57 62 67 70 72 71 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 28 31 36 39 40 39 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 16 19 17 16 12 13 6 6 10 10 14 16 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 3 1 0 4 6 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 84 86 85 83 76 61 58 44 43 213 238 232 228 211 223 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 141 143 140 136 134 134 136 135 132 131 128 125 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 134 134 136 133 126 122 124 126 126 125 123 119 116 113 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 50 54 55 56 55 52 51 57 54 59 59 62 58 56 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 22 21 15 6 -12 -14 11 10 24 19 17 44 40 37 1 200 MB DIV 20 0 3 13 13 10 11 -16 -45 -52 -28 -6 2 27 20 14 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 1620 1612 1592 1580 1582 1632 1712 1810 1842 1829 1796 1816 1924 1943 1971 2069 2159 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.5 13.3 12.9 13.0 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.5 35.8 36.2 36.5 37.1 37.5 37.5 37.4 37.1 36.6 36.2 35.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 1 2 2 4 6 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 19 19 20 21 20 19 19 20 21 22 20 16 14 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 31. 37. 42. 47. 50. 52. 51. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.8 35.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 2.3% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 30 37 44 51 57 62 67 70 72 71 70 69 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 29 36 43 50 56 61 66 69 71 70 69 68 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 32 39 46 52 57 62 65 67 66 65 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT