* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 33 40 46 52 57 61 67 68 68 64 61 56 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 33 40 46 52 57 61 67 68 68 64 61 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 27 29 32 37 41 42 39 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 13 14 20 14 15 12 8 5 16 18 25 35 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 4 0 6 6 0 -4 -2 -6 -1 0 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 79 72 78 65 71 56 54 32 360 228 240 243 229 220 218 234 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 139 139 141 142 136 132 131 131 130 131 126 122 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 132 132 133 136 137 129 121 120 121 120 123 118 113 110 107 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 55 55 58 59 60 58 54 56 59 60 60 60 60 61 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 12 12 12 11 12 11 13 12 12 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 17 15 15 8 -9 -17 0 15 27 40 34 58 48 26 13 200 MB DIV 43 34 18 37 43 34 37 -15 -26 -46 -24 29 29 19 46 39 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 6 7 LAND (KM) 1603 1576 1564 1553 1542 1584 1685 1824 1913 1946 1949 1872 1814 1780 1779 1764 1789 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.9 11.9 13.2 14.0 14.2 14.1 14.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.4 34.8 35.1 35.4 35.7 36.4 36.7 36.8 36.7 36.2 35.6 34.9 34.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 3 4 8 9 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 17 18 20 22 20 21 20 19 17 11 12 5 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 13. 20. 26. 32. 37. 41. 47. 48. 48. 44. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 34.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 33 40 46 52 57 61 67 68 68 64 61 56 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 31 38 44 50 55 59 65 66 66 62 59 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 28 35 41 47 52 56 62 63 63 59 56 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT