* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 41 50 57 62 69 75 83 85 88 88 90 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 41 50 57 62 69 75 83 85 88 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 37 42 48 54 58 60 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 10 10 19 13 15 11 9 6 6 3 6 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 4 6 3 3 3 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 108 105 97 89 73 67 57 51 54 50 24 7 293 258 227 218 199 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 142 141 142 142 141 137 134 132 132 132 131 129 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 136 137 134 134 134 133 129 124 121 121 121 121 120 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 51 54 53 51 51 54 56 56 57 58 58 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 35 27 26 25 15 0 -8 1 8 11 16 18 20 25 21 200 MB DIV -2 11 12 13 19 54 38 32 -10 -43 -37 -34 -5 -6 -18 -1 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1677 1663 1641 1621 1606 1589 1613 1688 1788 1864 1896 1893 1897 1940 1912 1900 1916 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.9 13.8 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.1 34.7 35.3 35.9 36.4 37.1 37.5 37.6 37.5 37.3 37.0 36.6 36.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 20 21 20 20 20 19 20 21 20 21 20 16 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -2. -1. -4. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 21. 30. 37. 42. 49. 55. 63. 65. 68. 68. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 34.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 31 41 50 57 62 69 75 83 85 88 88 90 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 29 39 48 55 60 67 73 81 83 86 86 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 36 45 52 57 64 70 78 80 83 83 85 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT