* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 30 39 48 54 61 66 74 80 83 84 84 84 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 30 39 48 54 61 66 74 80 83 84 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 33 36 42 47 53 55 55 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 10 13 14 13 9 12 6 3 11 8 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 2 5 5 3 3 2 -2 -3 -1 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 107 105 100 87 74 56 70 64 31 26 10 237 245 253 233 237 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 142 141 142 142 144 142 139 136 135 133 130 130 129 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 137 137 135 134 134 136 134 129 125 125 123 121 121 119 113 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 49 48 49 51 52 53 52 50 50 58 58 64 60 63 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 28 32 25 19 15 2 -15 -14 0 3 8 3 4 28 32 200 MB DIV 4 -3 12 7 13 42 42 3 -3 -40 -34 -46 -35 3 0 21 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1694 1677 1649 1626 1610 1587 1586 1626 1704 1785 1824 1854 1899 1926 1900 1905 1959 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.1 34.8 35.4 35.9 36.7 37.2 37.4 37.3 37.1 36.8 36.4 35.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 3 2 3 3 5 6 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 21 22 22 22 23 24 23 23 23 22 18 14 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 37. 39. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 28. 34. 41. 46. 54. 60. 63. 64. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 33.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/22/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 24 30 39 48 54 61 66 74 80 83 84 84 84 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 22 28 37 46 52 59 64 72 78 81 82 82 82 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 34 43 49 56 61 69 75 78 79 79 79 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT