* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992022 09/21/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 41 50 58 63 68 74 81 88 92 97 100 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 41 50 58 63 68 74 81 88 92 97 100 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 42 46 51 56 61 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 8 11 9 10 9 12 9 10 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 3 4 4 4 4 5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 116 104 87 93 107 98 69 75 86 92 85 315 312 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 138 139 142 142 143 143 142 141 141 142 142 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 131 133 135 136 135 135 133 133 130 130 131 133 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 53 49 49 49 51 50 50 48 52 55 56 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 36 32 34 33 28 26 17 2 -19 -11 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 1 0 -14 -2 16 3 26 1 -13 -20 -18 -13 -43 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1659 1704 1765 1745 1711 1658 1634 1602 1617 1639 1673 1675 1655 1646 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.0 11.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.4 32.9 33.5 34.2 34.8 36.1 37.0 37.5 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 37.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 17 20 24 23 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 21. 30. 38. 43. 48. 54. 61. 68. 72. 77. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 32.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992022 INVEST 09/21/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 17.0% 17.0% 8.1% 1.8% 10.3% 4.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.1% 6.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.3% 7.8% 2.8% 0.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992022 INVEST 09/21/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 27 32 41 50 58 63 68 74 81 88 92 97 100 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 38 47 55 60 65 71 78 85 89 94 97 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 34 43 51 56 61 67 74 81 85 90 93 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT