* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 41 39 32 28 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 41 39 31 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 36 31 28 32 41 39 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -15 -10 -1 6 15 18 17 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 306 304 283 239 244 253 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.2 24.4 22.1 20.0 15.2 12.9 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 97 107 96 88 78 75 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 102 93 84 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -58.1 -58.3 -58.1 -57.9 -57.8 -58.4 -59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 45 44 50 54 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 13 14 15 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -58 -26 16 27 29 -48 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 1 11 28 56 80 61 -227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 8 -18 -49 -114 -70 73 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1389 1392 1440 1524 1703 997 89 -392 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 35.0 35.7 37.2 39.7 47.1 56.0 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 47.2 44.0 39.8 34.4 21.8 6.9 -12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 32 43 53 62 63 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 2. -8. -17. -25. -34. -41. -49. -60. -67. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 11. 9. 2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -27. -31. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.5 49.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 41 41 39 31 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 38 36 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 32 30 22 21 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT