* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 42 47 40 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 42 47 40 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 33 34 35 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 62 55 52 41 33 26 35 39 39 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -14 -18 -17 -8 6 16 24 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 304 312 320 319 306 245 218 244 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.4 23.9 23.7 18.8 15.2 11.2 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 107 111 101 104 84 78 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 90 94 99 93 101 81 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -57.0 -57.5 -57.9 -58.4 -57.7 -58.0 -58.7 -60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 48 45 46 48 49 54 60 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 12 9 16 12 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -135 -132 -125 -105 -71 -17 15 -8 -94 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -17 -21 0 -13 23 55 74 65 -221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 21 9 13 3 17 -182 -114 55 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1578 1545 1517 1517 1547 1647 1839 812 -29 -427 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.8 33.1 33.3 33.5 35.1 39.7 47.4 56.2 60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 52.8 51.5 49.7 47.3 40.9 30.7 19.0 5.0 -14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 13 18 22 37 54 60 61 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -21. -29. -37. -44. -51. -60. -67. -70. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 10. 4. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 12. 5. 4. -6. -24. -29. -32. -36. -42. -46. -49. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.4 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 42 47 40 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 40 45 38 37 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 40 33 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 31 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT