* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 39 40 44 37 39 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 39 40 44 37 39 34 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 32 35 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 57 56 56 54 52 35 32 45 36 40 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -7 -11 -16 -8 2 9 16 19 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 296 300 303 314 320 299 260 262 300 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.9 25.1 24.0 22.5 17.7 14.3 11.8 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 106 105 108 103 98 82 76 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 90 91 96 95 95 79 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.1 -56.7 -56.9 -57.4 -58.1 -58.5 -57.9 -59.0 -60.4 -61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 52 50 46 44 41 45 53 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 7 6 11 11 18 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -126 -137 -144 -139 -125 -56 -13 -18 -55 -127 -202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -9 0 -19 -2 -11 33 68 44 4 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 15 18 14 -6 7 -66 -82 47 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1612 1577 1536 1501 1455 1479 1599 1549 460 123 -495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.2 32.7 33.2 33.7 34.4 36.8 42.2 49.5 56.3 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.8 53.9 53.6 52.7 51.1 46.4 39.1 28.0 15.4 0.7 -13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 7 12 16 24 42 55 58 50 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -17. -26. -32. -43. -50. -57. -68. -74. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 19. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 3. 3. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 2. 4. -1. -6. -11. -16. -24. -29. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.9 53.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 39 40 44 37 39 34 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 38 42 35 37 32 27 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 35 39 32 34 29 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 32 25 27 22 17 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT