* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 34 33 30 25 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 34 33 30 25 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 23 21 22 23 25 27 29 29 30 30 33 32 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 61 64 68 62 54 51 39 38 27 40 38 62 60 52 47 47 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -15 -16 -16 -11 -9 -7 -5 -6 13 3 13 1 -2 0 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 278 278 283 289 294 305 314 308 273 263 301 320 7 48 55 70 68 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.8 23.0 19.8 15.4 12.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 8.1 25.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 108 106 105 103 106 99 87 78 75 69 67 67 68 111 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 89 88 88 88 95 94 84 75 73 N/A N/A N/A 67 97 104 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -58.0 -58.0 -58.1 -57.9 -57.3 -57.9 -58.4 -58.7 -58.9 -59.9 -60.6 -62.3 -62.1 -61.3 -60.5 -59.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 47 50 48 43 41 43 43 58 68 61 51 51 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 8 6 5 6 7 15 14 14 10 12 16 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -89 -110 -135 -133 -146 -128 -40 3 -37 -106 -152 -206 -126 -41 -9 34 200 MB DIV -60 -58 -9 -11 -21 -14 -21 15 63 10 36 -57 -67 183 165 62 14 700-850 TADV 3 3 8 11 5 10 20 7 39 -36 51 122 112 33 -37 -15 -15 LAND (KM) 1661 1655 1641 1606 1576 1456 1337 1335 1623 958 14 -27 -520 -576 -72 120 267 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.2 32.5 33.6 34.9 36.6 40.8 47.5 55.0 58.5 55.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.9 53.0 53.1 53.1 52.6 50.0 44.4 34.6 21.6 8.4 -5.5 -14.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 8 18 33 53 57 50 33 24 25 26 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -23. -31. -38. -46. -54. -64. -76. -84. -88. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -2. -4. -5. -12. -9. -5. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -10. -16. -21. -34. -40. -45. -64. -69. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.7 53.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 61.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 34 33 30 25 20 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 32 31 28 23 18 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 25 20 15 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT