* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 36 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 36 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 24 20 19 18 19 20 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 54 56 63 65 59 54 40 46 37 59 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -9 -11 -12 -15 -10 -4 -3 9 0 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 272 271 272 276 284 298 309 303 276 289 313 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.5 24.8 21.4 14.9 13.0 3.2 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 109 109 110 109 110 109 93 77 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 91 91 92 92 95 100 89 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.9 -58.6 -58.6 -58.4 -58.1 -57.7 -57.2 -58.1 -58.2 -58.5 -58.3 -58.3 -59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 44 46 46 49 49 49 45 40 45 62 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 12 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -59 -76 -96 -117 -153 -171 -101 -31 15 13 -13 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -48 -61 -71 -30 3 13 26 12 33 77 52 19 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 4 7 14 10 18 25 20 28 34 100 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1653 1626 1601 1563 1519 1363 1226 1048 1121 1469 296 182 -502 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.6 33.9 35.5 37.5 40.6 47.0 54.6 58.6 57.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.5 53.7 53.8 54.0 54.4 55.0 54.3 50.3 42.0 29.1 14.4 -0.4 -14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 6 7 13 26 47 61 54 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -12. -25. -35. -43. -53. -65. -77. -91. -99.-104.-106. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -21. -26. -35. -45. -57. -66. -73. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.6 53.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 36 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 34 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT