* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 28 19 20 23 33 29 32 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 37 35 28 19 20 23 33 29 27 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 27 23 21 21 24 28 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 46 45 54 59 59 56 44 34 36 29 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -8 -2 -10 -12 -14 -9 -4 0 8 8 -7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 269 276 275 282 292 291 305 296 275 279 298 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.1 23.1 18.2 13.5 12.5 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 109 109 109 108 109 109 101 83 76 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 90 90 91 91 93 98 96 80 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.6 -58.9 -59.0 -58.9 -58.6 -58.0 -57.1 -58.1 -58.6 -58.6 -58.8 -59.6 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.9 -1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 44 44 47 47 43 42 45 55 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 13 12 8 6 5 9 15 24 25 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -33 -60 -76 -101 -153 -171 -180 -65 7 -3 -7 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -59 -68 -87 -34 -13 10 -11 42 45 31 55 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 1 6 16 12 17 3 38 -43 63 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1671 1653 1622 1598 1560 1453 1295 1124 1037 1466 762 66 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.4 33.2 34.7 36.6 39.0 43.7 50.8 57.0 58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.5 53.5 53.6 53.8 54.5 54.6 52.3 45.9 34.8 21.1 7.0 -7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 4 6 9 20 37 56 57 44 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -10. -22. -31. -38. -44. -53. -64. -78. -85. -89. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 22. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -16. -13. -7. 5. 6. 19. 15. 14. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -7. -16. -15. -12. -2. -6. -3. -18. -25. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -53.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 37 35 28 19 20 23 33 29 27 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 33 26 17 18 21 31 27 25 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT