* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 11/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 42 40 35 28 25 30 31 49 40 29 23 18 17 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 42 40 35 28 25 30 31 42 33 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 35 35 31 27 25 25 27 31 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 43 45 53 51 40 45 30 30 23 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -8 -3 -11 -6 -6 -7 2 7 7 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 254 270 281 279 291 292 302 315 292 299 315 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.4 24.8 21.5 14.8 12.2 3.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 111 109 107 108 108 110 110 93 77 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 92 91 89 90 91 96 103 89 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.1 -59.5 -59.1 -59.2 -59.2 -58.8 -58.3 -57.8 -58.5 -58.6 -58.6 -59.0 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -1.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 -1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 43 44 44 47 44 43 43 37 44 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 15 13 10 10 10 16 18 34 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -22 -34 -65 -78 -125 -172 -193 -110 -24 -21 -32 -117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -8 -54 -67 -74 -39 -35 -4 32 25 45 52 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 1 -1 2 0 6 9 15 22 -21 101 177 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1685 1661 1644 1611 1578 1513 1372 1189 989 1251 1075 -25 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.5 33.0 34.2 36.0 38.5 42.4 48.3 53.8 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.9 53.0 52.9 52.9 52.9 53.4 53.9 53.0 48.4 38.5 24.2 9.4 -4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 5 8 15 31 53 58 48 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -7. -18. -26. -31. -36. -42. -50. -62. -68. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -11. -5. -3. 18. 17. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. -0. -7. -10. -5. -4. 14. 5. -6. -12. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 52.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 11/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 11/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 11/05/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 41 42 40 35 28 25 30 31 42 33 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 39 37 32 25 22 27 28 39 30 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 31 26 19 16 21 22 33 24 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT