* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 51 57 57 57 53 55 45 35 27 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 44 51 57 57 57 53 55 45 35 27 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 44 45 45 45 41 36 33 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 16 18 21 25 24 31 31 35 44 30 25 29 42 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -8 0 -9 -6 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 225 222 209 215 220 219 248 252 279 277 300 312 338 74 172 217 254 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.8 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.1 23.1 21.9 21.0 19.7 18.3 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 127 122 113 110 104 99 95 88 90 86 83 79 76 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 112 108 104 98 94 89 84 79 74 76 75 73 70 69 71 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 -57.0 -57.4 -57.9 -58.7 -58.6 -59.1 -59.2 -58.6 -57.0 -56.0 -55.8 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 54 54 50 49 49 54 53 49 45 42 35 31 29 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 9 11 13 14 15 14 14 14 19 15 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -77 -81 -86 -80 -65 -66 -70 -73 -67 -68 -54 -70 -105 -143 -157 -133 200 MB DIV 21 35 41 25 5 45 24 12 1 -19 -18 -32 -107 -55 1 17 24 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 1 5 3 8 4 8 2 -2 -1 -5 8 4 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1818 1726 1655 1579 1520 1447 1487 1629 1793 1858 1764 1743 1775 1661 1610 1330 1071 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.2 33.0 33.9 34.8 36.6 38.2 39.3 39.9 40.1 40.2 40.9 42.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 45.9 45.5 45.0 44.2 42.1 39.1 35.8 33.0 31.1 30.0 30.0 30.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 14 13 9 6 2 6 9 11 12 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -6. -13. -20. -26. -32. -36. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 6. 11. 5. -2. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 32. 32. 28. 30. 20. 10. 2. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.3 46.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 6.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 9.3% 4.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.3% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/20/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 44 51 57 57 57 53 55 45 35 27 18 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 41 48 54 54 54 50 52 42 32 24 15 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 36 43 49 49 49 45 47 37 27 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 33 39 39 39 35 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT