* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/20/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 44 45 46 47 44 37 29 24 21 20 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 44 45 46 47 44 37 29 24 21 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 36 38 40 37 36 35 35 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 17 20 25 31 27 32 29 35 34 41 31 20 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 -2 0 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 188 211 209 205 211 212 232 261 271 288 306 300 288 321 12 21 122 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 134 132 115 111 107 102 98 95 92 92 95 99 103 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 114 113 111 98 95 91 86 82 78 75 75 78 82 86 85 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -56.6 -56.9 -58.1 -58.6 -59.3 -59.1 -59.5 -59.3 -58.7 -58.1 -57.4 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 56 54 52 47 47 46 49 47 47 49 46 41 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 8 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -87 -83 -92 -92 -62 -76 -74 -83 -79 -90 -81 -76 -76 -87 -90 -95 200 MB DIV 21 23 29 41 24 25 25 7 10 4 -22 8 -2 -77 -67 -58 22 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 1 3 5 6 13 6 1 0 0 -6 -4 -13 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 1919 1840 1759 1683 1624 1519 1515 1589 1719 1842 1909 1918 1905 1936 1916 1857 1766 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.2 32.1 33.0 33.8 35.6 37.1 38.3 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.3 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.8 45.6 45.2 44.7 44.1 42.5 40.1 37.4 34.8 32.9 31.9 31.5 31.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 12 9 6 3 1 0 2 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 10 8 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -28. -35. -38. -38. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 20. 21. 22. 19. 12. 4. -1. -4. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.4 45.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/20/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/20/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 40 44 45 46 47 44 37 29 24 21 20 23 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 38 42 43 44 45 42 35 27 22 19 18 21 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 36 37 38 39 36 29 21 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 28 29 30 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT