* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 48 48 44 39 35 30 27 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 48 48 44 39 35 30 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 37 40 42 41 41 40 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 13 17 19 24 30 23 22 23 29 27 32 27 16 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 191 199 216 212 213 226 221 261 272 288 303 316 325 349 34 45 21 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 134 134 134 128 116 110 105 102 97 94 95 96 100 107 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 114 113 113 108 99 93 89 85 80 76 78 78 84 90 99 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.8 -57.6 -58.6 -59.2 -59.0 -58.9 -59.1 -59.1 -58.1 -57.9 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 57 53 50 50 51 50 49 49 44 45 47 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -92 -89 -82 -94 -88 -79 -81 -72 -73 -87 -86 -104 -114 -84 -68 -48 200 MB DIV 17 21 17 36 43 12 40 19 32 -6 -27 -19 -62 -46 -36 -43 -2 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 4 1 6 7 17 12 10 3 -3 -3 0 -7 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 2007 1938 1871 1796 1717 1593 1523 1525 1595 1706 1802 1846 1810 1763 1748 1754 1783 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 31.0 31.8 32.7 34.4 36.0 37.4 38.5 39.2 39.5 39.5 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 45.5 45.3 45.0 44.6 43.4 41.7 39.5 37.1 34.8 33.2 32.6 33.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 8 4 1 2 2 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 11 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -23. -28. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 19. 14. 10. 5. 2. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.6 45.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/19/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 43 46 47 48 48 44 39 35 30 27 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 41 44 45 46 46 42 37 33 28 25 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 36 39 40 41 41 37 32 28 23 20 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 30 31 32 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT