* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 49 52 53 60 59 49 41 35 30 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 49 52 53 60 59 49 41 35 30 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 40 42 46 50 49 45 42 41 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 14 19 25 23 30 18 21 21 23 39 55 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 -2 0 -2 -6 1 -3 2 0 -5 -7 -12 SHEAR DIR 193 203 223 234 229 216 234 251 271 277 281 309 312 307 320 304 293 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.1 25.8 25.2 24.3 24.3 23.6 23.4 23.1 23.3 23.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 142 140 134 134 126 113 108 100 99 93 91 88 92 96 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 120 118 114 113 106 96 93 86 84 78 75 73 78 83 89 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.6 -57.2 -58.3 -58.5 -58.9 -58.5 -58.2 -58.4 -57.8 -56.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.7 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 60 57 57 55 57 55 53 48 48 50 55 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 8 8 8 13 12 6 3 2 3 12 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -86 -92 -95 -82 -98 -88 -83 -53 -71 -56 -68 -81 -85 -14 27 77 200 MB DIV 22 15 23 14 27 3 16 23 21 6 16 -38 -17 -33 6 16 -11 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 2 3 2 9 10 19 15 9 5 3 0 -13 -36 5 LAND (KM) 2088 2020 1959 1889 1821 1682 1552 1474 1477 1580 1718 1810 1836 1830 1823 1845 1802 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.6 31.3 32.9 34.6 36.3 38.0 39.2 39.8 40.5 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.4 46.3 46.1 45.9 45.0 43.9 42.1 39.5 36.6 34.1 32.3 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 12 9 6 3 1 7 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 20 15 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -27. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. 4. 3. -6. -11. -12. -11. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 24. 27. 28. 35. 34. 24. 16. 10. 5. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.7 46.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 10.7% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.7% 2.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.9% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/19/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 37 45 49 52 53 60 59 49 41 35 30 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 43 47 50 51 58 57 47 39 33 28 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 39 43 46 47 54 53 43 35 29 24 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 31 35 38 39 46 45 35 27 21 16 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT