* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 46 51 53 53 60 60 54 45 39 36 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 46 51 53 53 60 60 54 45 39 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 43 45 47 51 52 48 43 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 11 12 20 23 25 28 28 24 25 25 19 27 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 3 0 -1 0 -4 0 -5 -3 2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 185 204 216 227 232 233 225 241 266 273 284 304 312 314 326 331 338 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.2 25.9 25.2 24.2 24.2 23.5 23.1 22.9 23.2 23.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 143 140 135 134 127 113 108 100 99 93 89 86 90 95 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 121 118 114 113 107 96 93 86 84 78 74 71 75 80 86 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.3 -56.4 -57.1 -57.9 -58.7 -59.0 -58.5 -58.6 -58.4 -58.6 -58.4 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 59 60 58 55 53 56 55 51 47 49 45 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 7 7 13 13 11 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -90 -76 -87 -94 -93 -95 -99 -88 -74 -65 -55 -53 -67 -76 -72 -4 46 200 MB DIV 27 22 23 23 18 28 -1 23 15 24 -9 -17 -11 -39 2 3 8 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 2 2 3 8 8 21 15 10 3 0 0 -8 -14 -30 LAND (KM) 2122 2031 1959 1889 1824 1686 1571 1494 1473 1559 1715 1842 1811 1787 1822 1894 1965 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.2 29.9 30.6 31.3 32.9 34.5 36.2 37.9 39.3 40.1 40.6 41.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.4 46.3 46.1 45.8 44.9 43.7 41.9 39.7 36.8 33.9 31.8 30.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 10 6 3 0 4 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 20 15 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 7. 7. 3. -4. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 28. 35. 35. 29. 20. 14. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.4 46.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 15.1% 7.8% 1.4% 0.3% 3.2% 3.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.3% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 3.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/19/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 40 46 51 53 53 60 60 54 45 39 36 37 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 42 47 49 49 56 56 50 41 35 32 33 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 37 42 44 44 51 51 45 36 30 27 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 33 35 35 42 42 36 27 21 18 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT