* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 09/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 54 56 55 56 61 58 49 40 36 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 54 56 55 56 61 58 49 40 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 46 46 50 52 49 45 41 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 13 21 25 29 32 29 32 25 27 25 31 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 186 195 212 222 229 232 224 234 256 270 287 298 304 292 280 313 315 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.2 25.9 25.2 24.5 24.3 23.7 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 143 141 136 134 127 113 108 102 100 94 89 88 89 92 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 122 119 115 113 107 97 92 88 85 80 75 73 74 78 83 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.2 -56.6 -57.5 -58.5 -58.8 -59.2 -58.9 -59.1 -58.8 -58.6 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 61 59 58 54 53 51 52 49 46 44 47 46 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 5 5 4 5 6 8 7 7 9 13 13 9 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -88 -74 -87 -92 -87 -96 -76 -82 -78 -67 -47 -54 -69 -74 -37 17 200 MB DIV 29 25 20 24 23 30 11 11 9 15 -6 -11 -18 -21 -10 12 23 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 5 2 5 3 9 10 16 8 2 -2 -1 -6 -6 -18 LAND (KM) 2192 2066 1970 1900 1831 1692 1571 1503 1501 1594 1746 1884 1778 1745 1723 1706 1680 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.8 30.5 31.2 32.8 34.5 36.1 37.7 38.9 39.7 39.8 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 46.3 46.3 46.1 45.9 45.0 43.7 41.9 39.5 36.7 33.8 31.3 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 8 9 11 12 12 13 11 7 3 1 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 20 16 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 1. 3. 8. 6. -0. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 29. 31. 30. 31. 36. 33. 24. 15. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.8 46.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.9% 7.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 14.7% 7.9% 1.2% 0.3% 2.5% 4.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.7% 5.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 09/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 09/19/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 54 56 55 56 61 58 49 40 36 35 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 44 50 52 51 52 57 54 45 36 32 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 38 44 46 45 46 51 48 39 30 26 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 35 37 36 37 42 39 30 21 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT