* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/11/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 37 36 33 32 33 33 32 33 35 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 37 36 33 32 33 33 32 33 35 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 30 29 27 24 21 19 18 18 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 1 9 21 20 35 37 41 32 31 30 30 21 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 6 7 3 5 10 7 7 3 3 -5 -5 -6 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 121 107 69 307 279 298 277 279 279 285 278 274 264 295 291 292 281 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 133 128 125 125 125 126 129 134 134 139 143 146 148 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 133 128 125 125 125 122 121 122 117 119 119 121 122 123 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 73 71 69 63 61 60 60 62 64 66 67 66 66 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 75 76 68 65 40 20 -1 -26 -54 -72 -89 -80 -67 -56 -56 -51 200 MB DIV 17 26 36 52 29 26 30 19 21 21 24 19 4 22 10 0 12 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -5 -2 8 15 26 22 19 6 3 3 -2 0 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1804 1804 1789 1704 1635 1511 1496 1369 1176 1078 1112 1178 1246 1269 1292 1282 1288 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.8 16.4 18.2 20.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 26.4 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.7 38.0 39.5 41.1 45.0 48.9 52.5 55.1 57.0 57.9 58.3 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 18 21 20 18 14 11 7 6 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 15 6 5 5 23 15 12 14 12 15 20 21 22 23 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -13. -17. -19. -23. -25. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 10. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 35.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.8% 10.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.4% 5.8% 1.3% 0.7% 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 11.4% 5.6% 3.2% 0.2% 1.1% 4.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972022 INVEST 08/11/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/11/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 33 36 37 36 33 32 33 33 32 33 35 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 31 34 35 34 31 30 31 31 30 31 33 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 29 30 29 26 25 26 26 25 26 28 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 22 23 22 19 18 19 19 18 19 21 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT