* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/10/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 35 34 33 34 36 37 36 37 40 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 35 34 33 34 36 37 36 37 40 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 22 21 21 21 22 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 1 1 8 18 23 31 35 37 29 30 28 23 21 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 6 6 6 3 7 7 2 -1 -5 -11 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 63 64 143 260 284 285 297 269 269 281 278 272 281 275 271 268 276 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 136 131 125 124 125 126 129 130 130 128 127 127 127 130 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 136 131 125 124 125 122 120 116 112 107 105 105 106 111 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 75 76 71 68 64 58 60 64 61 64 65 64 63 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 78 76 71 63 49 18 3 -27 -55 -74 -74 -57 -33 -16 -10 -24 200 MB DIV 2 -4 -13 -21 -36 -30 7 25 31 30 21 12 7 -5 4 -16 2 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 -2 10 16 19 31 26 18 6 3 -1 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 1818 1846 1856 1812 1725 1593 1568 1519 1396 1398 1489 1575 1614 1624 1616 1601 1616 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.8 16.3 18.3 20.3 22.6 24.6 26.2 26.9 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.5 36.8 38.2 39.9 43.6 47.5 50.8 53.1 54.0 54.0 53.5 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 16 18 21 20 18 13 9 6 2 1 1 2 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 20 14 3 3 18 14 10 17 15 16 16 16 16 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 12. 15. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 34.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/10/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.0% 9.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 8.7% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.9% 3.5% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/10/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 35 34 33 34 36 37 36 37 40 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 33 34 33 32 33 35 36 35 36 39 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 29 30 29 28 29 31 32 31 32 35 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 23 22 21 22 24 25 24 25 28 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT