* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/10/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 43 42 43 41 40 38 39 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 43 42 43 41 40 38 39 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 34 34 33 31 28 26 23 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 5 0 8 17 17 29 34 41 31 37 28 33 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 6 5 3 4 10 5 2 6 4 1 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 100 79 101 113 67 276 290 274 276 271 278 266 284 283 291 263 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 134 128 124 124 125 127 130 138 139 141 143 150 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 135 134 128 124 124 123 124 123 128 124 124 124 128 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 75 76 71 68 62 60 57 59 64 69 70 72 75 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 75 79 77 70 45 18 -6 -18 -42 -50 -62 -68 -67 -60 -54 200 MB DIV 6 10 15 9 4 -10 -22 28 27 23 5 39 32 43 28 10 26 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -4 -3 0 10 -3 17 9 3 -4 -9 -1 -12 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1736 1837 1830 1842 1739 1590 1459 1448 1277 1046 872 836 861 915 993 1086 1183 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 15.1 16.4 18.0 19.4 20.9 22.3 23.8 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.4 34.8 36.1 37.4 38.9 42.1 45.9 49.6 53.1 56.1 58.5 60.2 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 18 20 18 17 14 13 8 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 23 19 9 5 8 20 18 15 26 23 36 40 35 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. 16. 15. 14. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 33.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/10/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.6% 10.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 9.0% 4.8% 0.9% 0.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 9.8% 5.3% 3.2% 0.1% 1.0% 4.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/10/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 35 39 42 43 43 42 43 41 40 38 39 43 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 41 42 42 41 42 40 39 37 38 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 36 37 37 36 37 35 34 32 33 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 29 29 28 29 27 26 24 25 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT