* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 47 53 58 60 60 59 58 53 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 47 53 58 60 60 59 58 53 51 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 43 44 43 41 38 35 32 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 4 8 9 17 20 26 27 32 29 28 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 2 3 3 3 1 4 9 3 1 0 1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 120 108 97 96 118 314 278 287 259 276 280 279 282 303 285 293 279 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 132 130 123 121 122 126 128 137 136 133 136 136 136 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 134 132 130 123 121 120 124 124 130 126 121 122 121 120 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 74 76 69 66 58 57 55 59 64 67 68 70 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 62 79 83 81 63 29 7 -19 -28 -37 -39 -41 -37 -50 -55 200 MB DIV 30 16 22 22 11 -12 -29 16 27 11 20 12 32 32 20 30 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 3 3 0 -2 -6 -10 -12 -10 -7 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 1580 1725 1841 1840 1831 1648 1493 1415 1283 1101 831 605 453 369 336 389 434 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.6 15.7 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.3 34.7 36.1 37.6 40.7 44.3 48.0 51.6 55.1 57.9 60.3 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 17 19 18 18 15 13 10 8 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 25 20 15 3 3 15 18 16 19 27 21 31 35 35 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 28. 33. 35. 35. 34. 33. 28. 26. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 31.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.0% 9.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 8.1% 4.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.8% 4.5% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/10/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 39 47 53 58 60 60 59 58 53 51 50 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 37 45 51 56 58 58 57 56 51 49 48 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 32 40 46 51 53 53 52 51 46 44 43 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 31 37 42 44 44 43 42 37 35 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT