* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/10/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 64 69 72 71 69 67 63 63 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 64 69 72 71 69 67 63 63 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 46 51 54 53 50 46 44 42 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 7 3 5 9 11 17 18 23 21 20 14 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 6 3 7 3 6 5 9 5 3 -2 3 5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 122 138 115 126 106 346 335 303 285 283 267 293 267 279 283 294 296 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.7 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 137 133 134 125 122 123 123 123 127 127 130 132 134 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 137 133 134 124 122 122 120 117 117 116 117 118 118 119 116 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 69 72 74 70 68 60 59 57 60 61 65 63 64 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 14 15 18 17 18 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 63 73 88 85 77 52 21 -15 -38 -70 -58 -45 -32 -33 -23 200 MB DIV 73 59 44 46 57 -1 -39 -10 50 49 22 5 24 28 38 0 9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -7 -8 -7 -6 -5 7 -1 -1 -2 -6 -1 -7 -3 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1455 1610 1766 1824 1817 1681 1526 1389 1354 1208 1130 1017 902 817 734 645 588 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.9 14.9 15.9 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.4 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.2 33.7 35.2 36.6 39.6 42.8 46.3 49.6 52.5 54.5 56.1 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 15 17 18 15 13 9 8 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 25 24 21 4 7 8 21 21 20 14 17 18 20 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 11. 8. 4. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 31. 39. 44. 47. 46. 44. 42. 38. 38. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 30.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/10/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 13.5% 8.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 14.4% 8.2% 3.5% 1.5% 4.3% 5.6% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% Consensus: 2.3% 10.1% 6.1% 3.6% 0.5% 1.6% 5.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/10/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 64 69 72 71 69 67 63 63 62 64 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 36 45 53 61 66 69 68 66 64 60 60 59 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 39 47 55 60 63 62 60 58 54 54 53 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 36 44 49 52 51 49 47 43 43 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT