* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 52 60 63 67 68 67 65 62 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 45 52 60 63 67 68 67 65 62 58 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 46 49 49 48 45 42 39 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 6 7 6 7 9 12 18 20 27 25 28 26 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 5 6 4 4 5 1 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 103 111 118 127 109 104 346 304 299 265 264 272 278 278 287 290 309 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 141 138 134 132 124 121 122 125 129 132 135 134 130 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 141 138 134 132 124 121 120 123 124 123 123 120 115 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 72 74 68 65 56 57 58 61 65 68 68 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 12 12 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 57 63 68 82 77 62 25 2 -31 -50 -61 -46 -55 -45 -43 200 MB DIV 32 47 42 28 33 29 -29 -51 27 26 18 36 33 37 38 -1 18 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -4 -6 -9 -7 -10 2 1 -1 3 -7 -3 -6 -8 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1302 1458 1601 1736 1827 1812 1625 1474 1390 1302 1161 962 801 720 661 640 632 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.3 15.4 16.7 17.8 19.0 19.9 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.7 32.1 33.4 34.8 37.6 40.7 44.2 47.9 51.3 54.3 56.7 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 17 19 18 16 14 11 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 18 17 24 25 16 5 3 11 18 20 16 20 18 14 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 35. 39. 42. 43. 42. 40. 37. 33. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 29.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 12.7% 8.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 14.3% 9.3% 4.6% 2.1% 5.5% 5.7% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% Consensus: 2.4% 10.1% 6.4% 3.9% 0.7% 2.0% 5.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/09/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 38 45 52 60 63 67 68 67 65 62 58 58 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 35 42 49 57 60 64 65 64 62 59 55 55 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 44 52 55 59 60 59 57 54 50 50 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 34 42 45 49 50 49 47 44 40 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT