* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 39 46 54 60 65 69 71 70 68 65 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 39 46 54 60 65 69 71 70 68 65 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 43 46 48 49 47 43 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 8 8 6 5 11 17 12 20 25 34 32 37 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 6 5 4 8 4 -2 1 9 1 1 -2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 71 94 111 108 97 338 337 321 306 287 278 297 293 305 305 309 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 141 140 137 132 125 125 125 128 127 135 140 142 140 137 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 141 140 137 132 125 125 125 128 127 133 136 134 130 126 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 70 71 70 67 59 56 51 51 55 59 64 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 49 53 61 84 78 78 52 37 18 0 -12 -23 -35 -31 -44 200 MB DIV 29 31 50 28 9 20 -18 -23 17 41 27 3 5 4 16 24 0 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -7 -7 -4 5 0 10 5 -7 -8 -14 -9 -13 LAND (KM) 1125 1265 1408 1542 1698 1843 1715 1513 1326 1238 1000 840 517 248 126 191 112 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.9 30.3 31.6 33.1 36.0 39.1 42.6 46.4 50.2 54.1 57.6 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 19 19 16 15 12 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 17 15 20 20 5 14 12 22 18 37 41 54 42 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 21. 29. 36. 40. 44. 46. 45. 43. 40. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 27.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.6% 7.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.6% 3.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.5% 3.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/09/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 33 39 46 54 60 65 69 71 70 68 65 64 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 53 59 64 68 70 69 67 64 63 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 48 54 59 63 65 64 62 59 58 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 39 45 50 54 56 55 53 50 49 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT