* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 59 70 76 78 80 78 75 73 76 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 59 70 76 78 80 78 75 73 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 49 57 62 63 60 54 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 11 9 7 10 5 4 9 8 18 26 28 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 5 8 7 8 1 2 0 1 6 6 2 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 34 48 75 85 65 72 23 60 292 250 242 232 268 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.4 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 137 137 140 131 133 124 121 119 124 125 129 135 137 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 137 137 140 131 133 122 119 118 122 120 122 130 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 69 69 73 71 68 60 57 54 57 59 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 13 13 15 17 18 16 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 32 39 47 69 81 92 80 52 32 8 -5 -27 -31 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 34 24 52 63 21 80 2 -8 37 37 27 23 7 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -9 -7 -7 -10 -5 -6 -7 -5 0 -3 -8 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 863 982 1105 1253 1403 1739 1793 1643 1557 1441 1334 1228 1174 920 583 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 15 17 16 13 13 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 7 7 16 20 23 5 7 3 20 22 23 18 25 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 10. 11. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 34. 45. 51. 53. 55. 53. 50. 48. 51. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 24.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.5% 9.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 10.0% 5.1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 8.6% 4.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.7% 4.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/09/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 41 48 59 70 76 78 80 78 75 73 76 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 46 57 68 74 76 78 76 73 71 74 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 52 63 69 71 73 71 68 66 69 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 43 54 60 62 64 62 59 57 60 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT