* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 58 65 76 82 88 94 100 102 103 104 105 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 58 65 76 82 88 94 100 102 103 104 105 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 45 52 59 65 71 79 85 89 91 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 9 8 3 6 6 2 1 10 7 4 3 9 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 10 11 9 9 13 10 4 4 5 0 0 7 10 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 39 6 355 39 51 100 136 109 338 244 329 38 16 67 337 338 311 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 26.9 26.9 26.4 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 136 136 136 137 125 125 120 120 123 126 129 128 133 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 136 136 136 137 125 125 119 118 121 123 125 123 127 126 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 65 67 67 67 65 66 65 63 59 58 57 59 62 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 12 15 15 18 18 18 19 20 19 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 36 40 46 63 76 103 100 94 78 62 36 26 3 -19 -38 200 MB DIV 82 116 93 48 61 95 62 70 -21 1 22 44 27 19 7 17 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -6 -6 -9 -12 -9 -6 -4 0 -1 1 3 -2 -10 -11 -9 LAND (KM) 485 666 818 949 1086 1379 1736 1938 1687 1488 1266 1150 1061 881 768 770 603 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 14.9 15.1 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.2 22.9 24.5 25.9 27.3 30.2 33.6 36.9 40.3 43.5 46.8 49.6 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 14 16 16 17 16 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 6 6 14 11 12 2 4 6 13 11 15 33 40 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 13. 12. 13. 12. 13. 10. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 33. 40. 51. 57. 63. 69. 75. 77. 78. 79. 80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 21.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.6% 8.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 16.7% 8.2% 3.7% 2.0% 3.3% 1.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 11.5% 6.2% 3.7% 0.7% 1.4% 4.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 40 48 58 65 76 82 88 94 100 102 103 104 105 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 44 54 61 72 78 84 90 96 98 99 100 101 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 38 48 55 66 72 78 84 90 92 93 94 95 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 38 45 56 62 68 74 80 82 83 84 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT