* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972022 08/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 35 40 47 53 59 66 72 77 82 87 90 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 35 40 47 53 59 66 72 77 82 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 52 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 12 11 6 1 6 9 9 11 0 8 11 6 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 6 10 9 12 17 11 6 0 -1 4 0 4 7 0 3 SHEAR DIR 26 24 9 358 31 80 175 177 195 220 212 255 144 107 107 40 24 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.5 27.2 26.6 26.8 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 128 133 137 145 129 122 125 118 124 126 128 131 133 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 128 133 137 145 129 122 125 117 123 125 125 126 128 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 67 67 70 68 65 65 61 62 55 55 54 60 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 22 26 28 32 46 62 83 103 91 85 68 53 35 24 2 -10 200 MB DIV 57 80 112 93 49 83 70 69 44 -23 6 30 30 12 14 10 17 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -8 -7 -14 -13 -6 8 4 4 1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 303 473 630 777 907 1160 1474 1832 1871 1640 1421 1242 1123 909 754 699 613 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.3 21.0 22.5 23.9 25.3 28.0 31.1 34.5 38.0 41.5 45.0 48.5 51.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 14 14 16 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 5 8 8 10 8 8 14 1 5 9 15 15 27 45 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 20. 27. 33. 39. 46. 52. 57. 62. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 19.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972022 INVEST 08/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 18.7% 8.0% 5.1% 4.0% 7.8% 6.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 9.1% 3.2% 1.8% 1.4% 3.0% 2.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972022 INVEST 08/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 25 27 31 35 40 47 53 59 66 72 77 82 87 90 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 24 28 32 37 44 50 56 63 69 74 79 84 87 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 27 32 39 45 51 58 64 69 74 79 82 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT