* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962022 11/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 54 62 72 89 99 86 74 65 52 41 36 32 30 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 54 62 72 89 99 86 74 65 52 35 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 50 60 71 72 63 51 50 52 52 46 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 23 22 20 30 32 23 18 23 4 7 13 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 0 0 9 4 4 3 16 15 13 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 212 218 225 223 191 205 204 220 210 299 247 233 219 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.4 24.9 25.2 24.3 21.0 11.6 7.9 4.8 9.6 15.1 14.3 5.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 109 106 109 105 91 74 70 66 73 77 76 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 94 92 96 97 87 72 69 N/A 72 75 74 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.3 -57.6 -58.0 -58.2 -59.0 -58.2 -56.3 -54.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 -0.1 -0.4 2.1 4.2 3.6 3.6 2.5 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 50 56 64 62 63 61 67 74 63 64 70 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 23 25 30 37 51 55 47 38 32 25 20 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 37 39 61 99 160 178 253 154 210 148 105 20 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 50 30 29 80 86 17 -7 70 28 -7 12 40 -45 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -6 0 5 -5 -22 3 -10 -90 32 16 -20 -26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1170 1219 1267 1237 1201 1080 1208 1364 1529 1062 1229 851 7 -24 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.6 36.1 38.5 43.3 52.6 59.9 59.4 53.3 49.5 52.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.5 55.0 53.6 52.0 50.3 46.0 38.5 30.4 34.1 42.8 37.0 21.7 6.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 14 16 27 48 48 32 19 46 53 46 38 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 16. 11. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 15. 33. 41. 29. 18. 9. -2. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 32. 49. 59. 46. 34. 25. 12. 1. -4. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.3 56.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962022 INVEST 11/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962022 INVEST 11/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 50 54 62 72 89 99 86 74 65 52 35 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 50 58 68 85 95 82 70 61 48 31 26 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 51 61 78 88 75 63 54 41 24 19 19 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 52 69 79 66 54 45 32 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT