* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 47 52 54 54 51 49 50 54 58 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 42 47 52 54 54 38 31 35 39 42 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 40 41 43 45 45 45 34 29 32 32 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 17 13 10 11 13 12 12 16 19 19 22 20 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -7 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 268 274 263 265 273 257 246 209 201 201 175 155 150 154 151 131 124 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 154 156 156 161 160 157 153 153 153 143 155 152 149 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 142 145 149 151 158 157 155 151 153 151 137 146 141 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 6 8 6 7 5 9 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 55 53 53 52 55 59 61 65 69 67 61 62 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 41 42 49 52 42 16 12 25 18 19 29 39 51 50 44 200 MB DIV 25 26 20 17 12 19 20 45 37 30 24 41 55 34 47 18 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 234 207 222 194 172 89 74 331 207 96 -132 -21 149 157 221 286 380 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.6 17.8 17.7 17.2 16.3 15.4 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.2 72.8 73.4 74.2 76.2 78.6 81.4 84.4 87.3 90.2 92.9 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 15 13 9 5 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 56 51 47 50 58 81 64 68 73 27 26 13 9 18 16 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 24. 21. 19. 20. 24. 28. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 71.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.6% 8.7% 7.5% 5.4% 9.3% 11.1% 23.3% Logistic: 7.4% 27.3% 25.2% 12.3% 1.9% 9.2% 9.1% 29.3% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 5.0% 13.8% 11.7% 6.7% 2.5% 6.3% 6.8% 17.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/30/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 39 42 47 52 54 54 38 31 35 39 42 47 48 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 38 43 48 50 50 34 27 31 35 38 43 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 38 43 45 45 29 22 26 30 33 38 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 29 34 36 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT