* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 35 41 50 54 56 56 51 53 58 61 65 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 35 41 50 54 56 56 35 38 42 46 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 40 30 31 30 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 8 10 4 4 8 12 12 14 19 19 21 24 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 2 0 0 -2 -2 0 3 3 -1 -4 -10 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 281 257 261 275 294 251 213 195 186 176 171 171 154 143 121 119 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.6 28.6 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 153 155 163 163 161 160 155 164 147 157 147 144 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 142 143 147 157 159 159 158 152 164 146 154 140 136 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 55 55 53 53 53 55 61 66 68 69 65 66 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 11 11 10 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 35 41 44 47 51 45 32 8 28 32 31 36 39 57 48 48 200 MB DIV 44 22 30 23 12 6 18 44 36 47 17 31 55 26 60 42 29 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 0 -2 0 5 8 2 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 257 302 320 290 281 218 163 253 185 96 20 -99 112 268 318 391 475 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.7 15.9 14.9 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 72.5 73.1 73.6 74.2 75.7 77.7 80.1 82.9 85.7 88.4 91.1 93.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 8 11 12 13 13 14 13 10 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 64 62 60 62 68 89 83 45 48 45 38 9 13 9 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 44. 45. 47. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 25. 29. 31. 31. 26. 28. 33. 36. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 71.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.0% 10.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 17.6% 16.4% 7.0% 0.7% 6.7% 9.1% 22.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 11.3% 9.0% 5.2% 0.3% 2.3% 7.5% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/30/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 31 33 35 41 50 54 56 56 35 38 42 46 49 50 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 32 38 47 51 53 53 32 35 39 43 46 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 28 34 43 47 49 49 28 31 35 39 42 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 25 34 38 40 40 19 22 26 30 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT