* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 41 45 49 51 53 53 59 61 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 41 45 49 51 39 31 38 40 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 26 27 29 26 27 29 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 6 5 9 5 6 7 16 15 14 16 18 25 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 0 -5 0 -4 -1 3 2 1 -8 -15 -6 SHEAR DIR 283 291 308 290 268 294 267 244 198 188 180 179 181 169 162 156 141 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 151 157 163 162 163 160 155 169 151 150 146 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 141 140 140 149 158 158 162 159 154 169 149 145 138 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 9 7 10 700-500 MB RH 62 62 58 57 56 52 55 55 53 56 62 67 69 69 64 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 36 39 42 49 52 42 25 17 39 29 32 27 36 55 55 200 MB DIV 48 36 25 33 28 -14 10 14 51 29 -3 6 66 47 9 6 38 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 1 4 11 3 5 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 225 259 294 311 325 298 223 183 300 117 25 -59 -55 133 162 145 134 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.4 16.0 15.4 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.1 72.6 73.0 73.4 74.5 76.0 78.1 80.5 83.3 86.2 89.0 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 4 4 7 9 11 13 14 14 14 12 9 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 65 63 61 61 61 72 92 72 42 43 29 42 13 10 10 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 42. 47. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. 39. 41. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 71.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 25.0% 28.8% 16.3% 1.6% 7.9% 7.9% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 9.0% 9.8% 5.5% 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 5.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/30/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 41 45 49 51 39 31 38 40 44 44 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 27 32 40 44 48 50 38 30 37 39 43 43 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 28 36 40 44 46 34 26 33 35 39 39 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT