* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 42 46 50 53 56 61 64 69 70 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 42 46 50 43 34 29 32 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 20 21 22 23 25 27 25 26 26 30 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 8 8 10 4 7 6 6 12 12 12 12 20 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 0 4 3 -2 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 274 276 279 282 277 281 301 253 268 233 190 201 195 175 180 167 149 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.9 28.7 29.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 150 151 152 164 163 161 162 155 169 148 156 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 139 138 138 141 143 158 159 160 162 155 169 146 150 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 8 7 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 63 61 58 59 55 52 57 62 63 66 60 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 60 54 45 40 27 39 51 39 22 26 33 28 37 20 33 47 200 MB DIV 20 43 54 38 32 0 0 -3 25 39 16 -14 25 74 28 -5 1 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 1 -5 1 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 203 200 214 211 223 277 281 237 145 240 157 -16 -69 -80 65 127 111 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.3 15.7 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.1 71.4 71.7 71.9 72.4 73.4 75.0 77.1 79.7 82.6 85.5 88.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 3 2 2 5 7 9 12 13 14 15 14 12 8 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 67 65 65 63 63 62 60 80 93 45 40 31 41 12 14 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 41. 44. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 70.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.4% 12.2% 5.7% 0.4% 3.2% 2.6% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 1.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/29/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 25 31 38 42 46 50 43 34 29 32 37 38 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 24 30 37 41 45 49 42 33 28 31 36 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 26 33 37 41 45 38 29 24 27 32 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT