* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 36 39 41 45 49 52 57 60 65 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 36 39 41 45 49 39 31 28 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 9 10 8 11 7 11 10 12 15 13 10 18 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 0 5 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 248 272 259 271 283 246 287 265 264 259 240 209 223 176 172 177 170 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.6 28.9 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 149 148 150 153 164 163 162 162 155 163 150 158 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 140 137 137 137 140 145 158 161 161 162 155 163 147 149 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 9 7 8 6 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 68 65 61 58 55 53 48 52 55 59 61 60 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 55 56 53 38 33 29 31 38 22 23 20 18 26 25 24 40 200 MB DIV 14 20 42 48 44 21 -4 1 -10 20 40 -6 -5 52 45 8 14 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 2 6 5 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 193 222 247 262 263 283 239 234 200 112 253 131 -34 -108 -60 43 71 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.7 16.6 16.2 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.1 70.5 70.6 70.8 71.2 71.9 73.1 74.9 77.3 80.0 82.9 85.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 3 2 2 3 5 8 10 12 14 14 15 13 11 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 61 67 67 66 65 63 60 54 77 88 45 40 29 38 13 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 41. 46. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 25. 29. 32. 37. 40. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.7 69.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.4% 6.8% 3.6% 0.3% 2.3% 1.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 36 39 41 45 49 39 31 28 32 34 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 30 35 38 40 44 48 38 30 27 31 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 26 31 34 36 40 44 34 26 23 27 29 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT