* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 30 36 40 41 42 42 46 51 56 62 68 73 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 30 36 40 41 42 42 46 51 56 40 42 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 23 29 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 13 13 11 8 9 9 11 10 12 11 5 4 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 0 9 7 8 4 SHEAR DIR 223 229 247 250 245 277 250 267 220 232 238 250 224 232 342 44 64 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 149 148 148 149 151 153 164 165 165 166 166 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 144 142 138 136 136 138 141 145 161 164 165 166 166 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 70 71 70 67 64 62 59 55 60 61 64 70 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 7 9 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 51 52 48 53 58 32 31 13 26 33 34 49 49 58 62 53 38 200 MB DIV 53 53 21 27 41 28 23 -2 8 -14 0 1 24 -9 34 84 107 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 3 3 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 1 5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 238 237 245 248 263 294 321 246 167 189 211 200 365 82 -157 151 340 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.3 15.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 67.8 68.3 68.8 69.1 69.5 69.9 70.4 71.3 72.7 74.7 77.2 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 5 6 8 11 13 14 15 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 58 54 54 57 58 60 60 57 50 46 69 94 38 33 41 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 48. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -12. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 26. 31. 36. 42. 48. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 67.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.0% 8.1% 3.8% 0.3% 2.4% 2.5% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 24 27 30 36 40 41 42 42 46 51 56 40 42 48 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 29 35 39 40 41 41 45 50 55 39 41 47 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 25 31 35 36 37 37 41 46 51 35 37 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT