* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 36 40 43 43 41 44 48 53 57 64 67 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 31 36 40 43 43 41 44 48 53 49 34 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 20 25 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 15 15 13 12 8 14 10 15 14 17 13 12 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 2 -2 1 2 9 11 11 SHEAR DIR 204 208 219 229 230 264 279 267 283 252 257 260 252 247 215 168 161 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 153 150 149 146 150 154 162 165 167 166 168 166 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 145 144 140 139 136 141 145 155 161 164 166 168 166 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 7 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 69 71 75 71 68 63 61 58 56 59 61 63 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 51 49 48 52 47 29 21 15 24 25 17 29 36 52 65 40 200 MB DIV 70 59 37 25 35 58 30 11 -1 5 -12 3 4 -14 33 72 86 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -1 6 5 6 LAND (KM) 193 210 198 190 200 234 284 323 193 56 72 81 79 280 -38 -92 145 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.1 17.5 17.5 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.0 67.4 67.8 68.2 68.7 69.1 69.5 70.2 71.4 73.1 75.5 78.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 8 10 12 13 16 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 46 55 56 55 54 56 58 55 54 39 39 62 71 40 36 31 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 48. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 21. 24. 28. 33. 37. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 66.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 8.1% 9.3% 5.4% 0.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 2.8% 3.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/28/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 31 36 40 43 43 41 44 48 53 49 34 38 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 29 34 38 41 41 39 42 46 51 47 32 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 25 30 34 37 37 35 38 42 47 43 28 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT