* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 10/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 76 81 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 25 27 29 31 32 33 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 10 9 8 11 5 9 8 12 11 12 10 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 3 2 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 184 113 169 199 230 234 284 295 310 274 283 281 288 251 214 146 133 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 152 152 150 149 148 150 154 162 165 165 170 172 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 144 144 144 141 139 140 141 147 157 162 165 170 172 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 71 71 75 76 71 67 64 60 56 59 62 65 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 45 47 42 57 36 30 20 24 27 20 34 37 48 66 56 200 MB DIV 88 75 66 38 40 44 25 24 24 38 1 1 -8 0 6 76 80 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -8 -4 2 5 7 LAND (KM) 156 179 204 218 205 208 239 284 313 173 100 91 89 217 151 -130 26 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.2 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.3 66.6 67.0 67.3 68.0 68.6 69.1 69.7 70.7 72.1 74.0 76.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 39 49 57 56 54 56 58 56 52 38 49 77 52 35 9 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 47. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 8. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41. 45. 50. 56. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 66.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 3.7% 1.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 10/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 10/28/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 22 25 30 38 44 49 53 57 61 65 70 50 41 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 24 29 37 43 48 52 56 60 64 69 49 40 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 25 33 39 44 48 52 56 60 65 45 36 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT