* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 21 23 26 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 24 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 21 23 26 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 20 19 19 20 20 21 22 24 25 26 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 14 13 8 5 24 16 19 21 25 27 27 27 30 28 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 4 0 2 0 -2 1 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 209 200 180 193 126 131 210 290 312 304 302 295 285 270 258 260 254 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.2 27.2 25.2 22.9 22.7 22.9 23.9 23.6 24.2 23.7 19.4 19.4 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 138 144 134 112 94 91 92 99 99 103 100 81 80 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 126 136 131 102 82 79 80 87 89 95 92 76 76 74 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -52.3 -52.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 2 7 1 700-500 MB RH 44 45 49 51 52 51 63 55 46 42 46 42 36 30 26 26 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -84 -67 -58 -56 -99 -68 -54 -42 -36 -42 -38 -16 37 44 56 90 200 MB DIV 7 11 28 -1 -16 22 -6 -6 -11 -32 -9 -49 -18 -37 -22 -14 0 700-850 TADV 6 6 7 6 -1 -7 9 29 14 3 0 -15 -22 -43 -75 -62 -36 LAND (KM) 1892 1848 1889 2001 1939 1558 1409 1578 1763 1545 1362 1156 838 351 -53 -341 -619 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.4 26.7 28.0 29.7 34.5 39.5 42.1 42.5 41.6 39.5 36.8 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.5 49.7 49.2 48.1 44.0 38.8 34.3 30.7 27.8 25.0 22.1 19.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 17 23 34 27 17 12 13 16 20 22 21 20 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 18 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 19 CX,CY: -10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.0 48.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.6% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 3.5% 3.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% 3.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/10/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/10/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 21 21 23 26 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 25 26 18HR AGO 25 24 22 21 21 23 26 29 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 25 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 22 25 28 29 30 30 29 27 24 21 24 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 20 23 24 25 25 24 22 19 16 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT