* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/10/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 19 22 24 26 28 29 29 29 28 25 23 20 21 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 19 22 24 26 28 29 29 29 28 25 24 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 21 19 17 16 15 15 16 16 17 19 20 20 21 22 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 24 15 13 9 5 24 15 19 26 31 24 29 30 27 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 3 1 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 208 208 197 177 196 117 147 238 298 301 300 293 275 270 254 243 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.2 26.7 24.8 24.1 23.7 23.9 24.2 23.9 22.3 19.4 19.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 131 135 136 145 128 108 101 99 102 103 100 92 81 81 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 119 121 124 139 124 98 88 87 93 94 92 86 77 77 86 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 46 48 51 53 62 49 44 42 39 33 31 28 31 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -69 -71 -70 -62 -72 -102 -76 -57 -50 -41 -20 2 21 67 80 61 200 MB DIV 9 12 7 13 3 -1 6 14 -9 -23 -24 -20 -10 -7 -3 30 25 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 5 5 0 -11 21 24 8 -5 -14 -32 -62 -48 -37 -30 LAND (KM) 1932 1874 1845 1870 1962 1903 1567 1518 1760 1621 1337 956 520 102 -184 -520 -287 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.4 24.6 25.7 26.9 30.3 35.2 39.6 41.3 40.1 37.1 33.5 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.5 49.2 49.4 49.0 46.8 42.3 37.1 32.4 28.2 24.3 20.6 17.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 12 15 26 33 25 17 19 24 21 20 20 21 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 22 24 21 23 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 17 CX,CY: -10/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. -2. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 47.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/10/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 2.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/10/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/10/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 20 19 22 24 26 28 29 29 29 28 25 24 26 26 18HR AGO 25 24 22 21 20 23 25 27 29 30 30 30 29 26 25 27 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 22 24 26 28 29 29 29 28 25 24 26 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT