* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 20 21 22 24 25 28 30 33 34 35 35 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 23 12 10 4 11 16 11 13 19 20 20 25 33 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 2 1 0 2 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -1 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 213 213 219 218 195 243 82 171 234 313 317 311 299 262 258 263 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.1 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.9 24.4 24.2 23.6 19.0 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 131 131 136 142 132 108 100 97 100 104 102 98 79 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 121 119 118 124 136 128 98 87 85 90 94 93 90 74 74 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 5 3 2 3 4 4 5 2 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 43 44 49 48 55 60 41 40 44 37 32 31 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 7 5 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -37 -47 -58 -66 -58 -90 -98 -70 -68 -52 -65 -59 -31 -10 47 85 200 MB DIV 0 0 6 -8 -1 -6 4 6 3 -24 -37 -25 -18 -28 -30 -11 4 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 2 4 1 9 -7 15 26 9 -2 -6 -40 -49 -71 -65 LAND (KM) 1898 1923 1904 1860 1867 2025 1906 1597 1582 1839 1596 1391 1130 734 365 -29 -246 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.7 27.1 30.5 35.3 39.8 41.3 40.1 37.4 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.0 48.0 48.7 49.0 48.4 45.9 41.5 36.0 31.3 27.9 25.0 22.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 15 26 33 26 15 16 19 19 19 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 17 14 18 21 15 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.9 46.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.7% 7.7% 5.1% 3.0% 7.7% 7.2% 7.2% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1% 1.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/09/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 36 35 34 29 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 27 28 30 32 34 35 34 33 32 27 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 21 22 24 26 28 29 28 27 26 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT