* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 30 32 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 30 32 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 29 26 25 27 30 33 36 38 41 44 47 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 20 13 7 5 4 14 18 16 15 6 7 22 30 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 3 3 2 2 3 -2 -4 -3 0 1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 217 214 215 214 224 228 282 150 160 184 234 266 267 260 256 257 266 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.6 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.3 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 133 132 129 135 139 137 127 113 106 105 104 101 101 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 125 123 120 116 123 129 130 117 100 93 93 92 90 91 87 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 45 42 45 49 45 44 46 42 40 39 32 31 30 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -14 -26 -36 -65 -38 -78 -104 -118 -110 -103 -79 -70 -70 -55 -34 200 MB DIV -15 6 -1 -1 -17 3 0 6 6 7 6 -17 -18 -25 -27 -44 -18 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 3 2 2 4 1 2 -11 10 -8 -1 -21 -24 -46 -45 LAND (KM) 1835 1832 1855 1857 1853 1873 2025 2039 1855 1854 1908 1591 1256 1008 748 488 240 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.6 24.6 26.7 29.3 32.5 35.8 37.2 36.1 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.9 46.9 47.8 48.5 48.9 48.2 45.7 41.7 36.3 30.9 26.9 24.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 11 11 10 14 20 27 26 19 17 15 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 21 15 15 21 15 16 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 45.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 7.8% 6.8% 4.8% 2.7% 7.4% 7.2% 8.9% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% 3.1% 2.8% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/09/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 30 32 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 45 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 30 29 28 30 32 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 28 27 26 28 30 32 34 37 38 41 41 41 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 22 21 23 25 27 29 32 33 36 36 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT