* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 28 26 23 26 29 31 33 36 37 39 39 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 28 26 23 26 29 31 33 36 37 39 39 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 26 22 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 36 39 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 27 22 9 5 2 9 21 13 14 14 15 29 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 1 3 2 3 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 214 221 219 215 213 178 269 149 154 160 193 262 271 215 220 238 239 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.2 25.9 25.0 24.2 24.5 24.2 23.8 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 132 134 134 131 137 142 141 133 118 108 102 103 101 99 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 123 125 124 118 124 131 133 126 107 95 91 92 91 90 81 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 2 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 46 47 44 50 48 44 42 46 36 38 34 32 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -3 -4 -22 -55 -44 -49 -86 -110 -116 -107 -89 -67 -46 -38 -19 200 MB DIV -12 -17 5 0 -6 -11 -5 18 -3 16 19 -17 -20 -22 -22 -33 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 0 2 -1 9 -2 -17 -2 5 -10 -3 -29 -44 -63 LAND (KM) 1847 1810 1799 1828 1826 1805 1881 2139 1931 1789 1927 1701 1427 1067 748 416 56 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.8 21.6 23.4 25.3 27.8 30.7 34.3 37.1 37.5 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.3 46.4 47.3 48.1 49.2 49.1 47.5 44.4 39.6 33.7 28.6 25.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 11 17 23 29 25 17 17 16 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 20 27 21 16 22 28 13 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -9. -6. -4. -2. 1. 2. 5. 4. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 44.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.5% 1.8% 6.1% 5.9% 7.9% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 2.5% 2.4% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/09/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 31 29 28 26 23 26 29 31 33 36 37 39 39 38 39 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 29 27 24 27 30 32 34 37 38 40 40 39 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 26 23 26 29 31 33 36 37 39 39 38 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 19 22 25 27 29 32 33 35 35 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT