* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 29 26 23 20 22 23 25 26 26 28 31 33 34 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 29 26 23 20 22 23 25 26 26 28 31 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 28 24 21 20 22 23 25 26 28 29 33 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 30 25 15 12 5 13 20 19 23 16 12 11 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 0 3 2 2 3 2 -2 -4 -4 -4 3 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 222 219 224 220 213 234 243 296 148 174 276 315 315 257 172 193 229 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.4 27.9 26.0 24.2 22.9 22.3 21.2 20.6 16.6 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 132 135 134 133 136 145 142 122 104 92 86 82 82 75 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 123 125 124 121 123 137 140 117 93 79 73 71 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 46 46 45 49 55 54 54 57 44 41 36 37 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 11 11 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 -5 -11 -11 -46 -60 -11 -34 -51 -36 -22 -18 18 28 1 26 200 MB DIV -18 -26 -5 16 -11 -10 12 10 5 15 4 -32 -29 -13 -4 38 67 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -3 0 1 1 4 -9 -29 20 22 10 2 3 12 22 LAND (KM) 1901 1850 1822 1821 1807 1756 1759 1955 1774 1417 1511 1753 1630 1560 1476 1317 1106 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.2 22.7 24.6 27.3 31.6 37.3 41.5 42.8 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.7 45.9 47.0 48.0 49.5 50.1 49.3 46.4 41.5 35.6 31.5 29.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 19 31 35 24 12 6 7 14 23 27 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 26 24 17 21 28 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 18. 16. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -14. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -13. -12. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 43.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 8.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 5.7% 6.4% Logistic: 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/09/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/09/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 30 29 26 23 20 22 23 25 26 26 28 31 33 34 18HR AGO 35 34 32 30 29 26 23 20 22 23 25 26 26 28 31 33 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 28 25 22 19 21 22 24 25 25 27 30 32 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 18 15 17 18 20 21 21 23 26 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT